I-RMB ngokumelene nobhasikidi wezimali iqhubekile nokuba buthaka ngoNhlangulana, okwathi phakathi nayo, inkomba yesilinganiso sokushintshaniswa kwe-CFETS RMB yehle isuka ku-98.14 ekuqaleni kwenyanga yaya ku-96.74, okwenza irekhodi elisha eliphansi kakhulu kulo nyaka.Ukwenyuka kwesilinganiso senzalo ye-Sino-US, isidingo sesizini sokuthengwa kwemali yangaphandle kanye nesexwayiso semakethe mayelana nethuba lokusimama komnotho wase-China yizizathu eziyinhloko ezibangela ukwehla okuqhubekayo kwezinga lokushintshisana kwe-RMB.
Ukuze kubhekwane nokuguquguquka kwezinga lokushintshisana kwe-RMB muva nje, simema ithimba lezezimali le-SUMEC International Technology Co., Ltd. ukuthi linikeze incazelo yobungcweti nokuhlaziya inkambiso yakamuva ye-RMB nemali yangaphandle.
I-RMB
Ngomhla zingama-20 kuNhlangulana, IBhange Elikhulu lehlise izilinganiso ze-LPR zonyaka ongu-1 nangaphezulu kweminyaka emi-5 ngo-10BP, okuthobelana nokulindelwe yimakethe futhi okuholela ekunwebeni okwengeziwe kokuguquguquka kwemajini yenzalo ye-Sino-US.Ukuthengwa kwemali yangaphandle kwesizini okubangelwa yizabelo zebhizinisi zaphesheya kwezilwandle kukhawulele ukukhuphuka kabusha kwe-RMB ngokuqhubekayo.Phela, isizathu esiyinhloko sokuba buthaka kwe-RMB sisezisekelweni zezomnotho, ezisebuthakathaka: Ukukhula kwe-YOY kwedatha yezomnotho ngoMeyi kusahluleka ukufinyelela okulindelekile futhi umnotho wasekhaya wawusesigabeni sezinguquko sokusimama.
Abalawuli baqala ukukhipha isignali yokusimamisa izinga lokushintshisana kanye nokwehla okwengeziwe kwe-RMB.Isilinganiso esimaphakathi se-RMB sibe namandla kunokulindela imakethe izikhathi eziningi kusukela ekupheleni kukaJuni futhi ukulungiswa okuphambene nesilinganiso esimaphakathi kwethulwa ngokusemthethweni.Ukuzimisela “kokugwema ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwezinga lokushintshisana” kwaphinde kwagcizelelwa emhlanganweni ovamile we-Q2 2023 weKomidi Lenqubomgomo Yezimali YeBhange Elikhulu njengoba ububanjwe ekupheleni kwenyanga.
Ukwengeza, kubhekisiswe nenqubomgomo yeKomidi Elikhulu yokukhula komnotho okuqhubekayo kuyo yonke imakethe.Iqoqo lezinqubomgomo kanye nezinyathelo zokufukula umnotho okuqhubekayo kwacutshungulwa emhlanganweni weKomidi Elimisiwe le-NPC ngoJuni 16. Ngalo lolo suku, Ikhomishana Kazwelonke Yezokuthuthukiswa Nezinguquko (i-NDRC) nayo yamemezela imizamo yayo ekwakheni nasekumemezeleni izinqubomgomo zokubuyisela nokwandisa. ukusetshenziswa ngokushesha ngangokunokwenzeka.Ukumenyezelwa kanye nokuqaliswa kwenqubomgomo efanele kuzokhuphula izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB ngempumelelo.
Ukufingqa, sikholelwa ukuthi izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB selifinyelele phansi, lishiya isikhala esilinganiselwe sokwehla okwengeziwe.Ngokwethemba, izinga lokushintshaniswa kwe-RMB lizophinde likhuphuke kancane kancane ngokukhuphuka okuqhubekayo komnotho wezwe maphakathi nesikhathi eside.
Isitayela sakamuva semali yangaphandle
/USD/
NgoJuni, idatha yezomnotho yase-US yaxubana nethemba nokwesaba, kodwa ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali yaba buthakathaka ngokuqhubekayo.Kokubili i-CPI ne-PPI zibe nokukhula kwe-YOY okuphansi kunevelu yangaphambilini: NgoMeyi, i-QOQ CPI isanda kukhuphuka ngo-0.1%, ngo-4% phezulu ngesisekelo se-YOY kodwa ngaphansi kwalokho obekulindelekile.Idatha ye-PPI ibuyele emuva ngokuphelele.NgoMeyi, inkomba yentengo ye-PCE ithuthuke ngo-3.8% ngesisekelo se-YOY, okokuqala ngqa lapho yehla yaba inani elingaphansi kuka-4% kusukela ngo-Ephreli 2021. Nakuba izinga lenzalo le-USD lingase likhuphuke kabili kulo nyaka, ngokusho kwe-lattice. umdwebo we-Federal Reserve ngoJuni kanye nenkulumo ka-Powell ka-hawkish, uma idatha yokwehla kwamandla emali ibuyela emuva ngoJuni, kuzoba nesikhala esincane kakhulu sokuqiniswa kwe-USD kanye nokukhuphuka kwezinga lenzalo nge-USD kulo mzuliswano kuzosondela.
/EUR/
Ngokungafani ne-US, ingcindezi yokwehla kwamandla emali ku-eurozone isalokhu isendaweni ephezulu kakhulu emlandweni.Nakuba i-CPI e-Eurozone yehle yafika ezingeni eliphansi kusukela ngo-2022 ngoJuni, i-CPI eyinhloko, ekhathazeke kakhulu yi-European Central Bank ibonise ukukhula kwe-YOY ngo-5.4%, okungaphezulu kuka-5.3% wenyanga edlule.Ukwenyuka kokwehla kwamandla emali okuyinhloko kungase kwenze ukuthuthukiswa kwenkomba yokwehla kwamandla emali kungasho lutho futhi kuphinde kuholele ekukhathazekeni okuqhubekayo kwe-European Central Bank ngengcindezi eyinhloko yokwehla kwamandla emali.Ngokucabangela lokhu okungenhla, izikhulu ezimbalwa ze-European Central Bank zazwakalisa izinkulumo ze-Hawkish zilandelana.UQuindos, iphini likamongameli we-European Central Bank uthe, "Ukukhuphuka ngenzalo futhi ngoJulayi kuyiqiniso".UMongameli uLagarde uphinde wathi, "Uma isibikezelo sokuqala sebhange eliphakathi sihlala singashintshile, singase sinyuse izinga lenzalo futhi ngoJulayi".Ukulindela kokuqhubeka nokwenyusa izinga lenzalo ye-EUR ngo-25BP kufundiwe emakethe.Kufanele kuqashelwe isitatimende esengeziwe se-European Central Bank ngemva kwalo mhlangano wokugibela inzalo.Uma isimo se-hawkish siqhubeka, umjikelezo wokwenyuka kwezinga le-EUR uzonwetshwa futhi izinga lokushintshisana le-EUR lizophinde lisekelwe.
/JPY/
I-Bank of Japan ayizange iguqule inqubomgomo yayo yezimali ekhona ngoJuni.Isimo sengqondo esinjalo se-doveish siholela ekucindezelweni okuphezulu kokwehla kwe-JPY.Ngenxa yalokho, i-JPY yaqhubeka iba buthaka kakhulu.Nakuba ukwehla kwamandla emali eJapane kusezingeni eliphezulu emlandweni muva nje, ukwehla kwamandla emali okunjalo kusephansi kakhulu kunamazwe aseYurophu naseMelika.Njengoba ukwehla kwamandla emali kubonise ukuthambekela okuba buthakathaka ngoJuni, mancane amathuba okuthi iBhange LaseJapan lishintshe lisuke ekubeni yinqubomgomo eliqinile liye kumgomo oqinile futhi i-Japan isenayo ingcindezi yokwehla kwezinga lenzalo.Kodwa-ke, i-bureau yase-Japan enesibopho ingase ingenele ngezinga lokushintshisana phakathi kwesikhathi esifushane.Ngomhla ka-Juni 30, izinga lokushintshanisa le-JPY ukuya ku-USD lidlule ku-145 ngokokuqala ngqa kusukela ngoNovemba odlule.NgoSepthemba odlule, i-Japan yenza umshini wayo wokuqala kusukela ngo-1998 ukuze isekele i-JPY, ngemva kokuba izinga lokushintshanisa le-JPY ukuya ku-USD lidlule ku-145.
* Izincazelo ezingenhla zimelela imibono yomuntu siqu yombhali futhi ingeyereferensi kuphela.
Isikhathi sokuthumela: Jul-06-2023