I-RMB ngokuchasene nebhaskithi yemali iqhubekile ukuba buthathaka ngoJuni, apho, i-CFETS RMB i-index ye-exchange rate yehla ukusuka kwi-98.14 ekuqaleni kwenyanga ukuya kwi-96.74, idala irekhodi elitsha eliphantsi kulo nyaka.Ukonyuka komyinge wenzala ye-Sino-US, imfuno yexesha lonyaka lokuthengwa kotshintshiselwano lwangaphandle kunye nesilumkiso semarike malunga nethemba lokubuyela kwimeko yesiqhelo yoqoqosho lwaseTshayina zezona zizathu zibangela ukuhla okuthe gqolo kwereyithi ye-RMB.
Ukujongana nokuguquguquka kwezinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB kutshanje, simema iqela lezemali le-SUMEC International Technology Co., Ltd. ukuba linike inkcazo yobungcali kunye nohlalutyo kwindlela yamva nje ye-RMB kunye nemali yangaphandle.
RMB
NgoJuni 20, iBhanki ePhakathi yehla imilinganiselo ye-LPR ye-1 ngonyaka nangaphezulu kweminyaka emi-5 nge-10BP, ehambelana nokulindela kweemarike kwaye ikhokelela ekwandiseni ngakumbi kwe-Sino-US inversion ye-interest margin.Ukuthengwa kwemali yamazwe angaphandle okwexeshana okubangelwa yizabelo zamashishini aphesheya kolwandle nako kuthintele ukuphinda kufumaneke i-RMB ngokuqhubekayo.Emva kwayo yonke loo nto, esona sizathu siphambili sokuba buthathaka kwe-RMB silele kwiziseko zezoqoqosho, ezisebuthathaka: Ukukhula kwe-YOY yedatha yezoqoqosho ngoMeyi kusahlulekile ukufikelela kulindelo kwaye uqoqosho lwasekhaya lwalusekwinqanaba lenguquko lokubuyisela.
Abalawuli baqala ukukhulula umqondiso wokuzinzisa izinga lotshintshiselwano kunye nokwehla kwexabiso le-RMB.Ireyithi ephakathi ye-RMB yomelele kunokulindela imarike kumaxesha amaninzi ukususela ekupheleni kukaJuni kunye nohlengahlengiso lwe-countercyclical lwezinga eliphakathi luqaliswa ngokusesikweni.Uzimiselo “lokunqanda ukuguquguquka okukhulu kwezinga lotshintshiselwano” kwagxininiswa ngakumbi kwintlanganiso yesiqhelo ye-Q2 2023 yeKomiti yoMgaqo-nkqubo wezeMali weBhanki Enkulu ebibanjwe ekupheleni kwenyanga.
Ukongeza, kunikwe ingqwalasela kumgaqo-nkqubo weKomiti ePhakamileyo ukuze kukhule uqoqosho oluzinzileyo kwimarike iphela.Iqela lemigaqo-nkqubo kunye nemilinganiselo yokunyuka koqoqosho oluqhubekayo yaphononongwa kwintlanganiso yeKomiti eSisigxina ye-NPC ngoJuni 16. Kwangolo suku lunye, iKomishoni yoPhuhliso lweSizwe kunye noHlengahlengiso (i-NDRC) nayo yabhengeza iinzame zayo ekuqulunqeni nasekubhengezeni imigaqo-nkqubo yokubuyisela nokwandisa. ukusetyenziswa ngokukhawuleza.Ukubhengezwa kunye nokuphunyezwa komgaqo-nkqubo ofanelekileyo kuya kwandisa izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB ngokufanelekileyo.
Ukushwankathela, sikholelwa ukuba izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB lifikelele ezantsi, lishiya indawo encinci kakhulu yokuhla ngakumbi.Ngethemba, izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-RMB liya kuphinda linyuke ngokuthe ngcembe ngokunyuka okuzinzileyo koqoqosho lwesizwe phakathi nakwixesha elide.
Indlela yakutsha nje yemali yangaphandle
/IUSD/
NgoJuni, idatha yezoqoqosho yase-US yaxubana nethemba kunye noloyiko, kodwa uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso luye lwaba buthathaka ngokuqhubekayo.Zombini i-CPI kunye ne-PPI yayinokukhula kwe-YOY ngaphantsi kwexabiso langaphambili: NgoMeyi, i-QOQ CPI yanda nje ngo-0.1%, i-4% ephezulu kwisiseko se-YOY kodwa iphantsi kunokuba ilindelwe.Idatha yePPI yawa ngokupheleleyo.NgoMeyi, inkcazo yexabiso le-PCE iphuculwe nge-3.8% kwisiseko se-YOY, okokuqala ngqa xa yehla kwixabiso elingaphantsi kwe-4% ukususela ngo-Ephreli 2021. Nangona inzala ye-USD inokunyuka kabini kulo nyaka, ngokwe-lattice. Umzobo we-Federal Reserve ngoJuni kunye nentetho kaPowell ka-hawkish, ukuba idatha yokunyuka kwamaxabiso ibuyela emva ngoJuni, kuya kubakho indawo encinci ye-USD yokuqinisa kunye nokunyuka kwenzala kwe-USD kulo mjikelo kuya kusondela.
/I-EUR/
Ngokwahlukileyo kwi-US, uxinzelelo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kwi-eurozone lusahleli kwindawo ephezulu kakhulu kwimbali.Nangona i-CPI kwi-Eurozone yehla ukuya kwindawo ephantsi ukususela kwi-2022 ngoJuni, i-CPI engundoqo, echaphazelekayo kakhulu yi-European Central Bank ibonise ukukhula kwe-5.4% ye-YOY, ephezulu kune-5.3% yenyanga edlulileyo.Ukunyuka kwexabiso lokunyuka kwamaxabiso kunokwenza uphuculo lwesalathisi sokunyuka kwamaxabiso lube luncinci kwaye lukhokelela kwiinkxalabo eziqhubekayo ze-European Central Bank kuxinzelelo olungundoqo lokunyuka kwamaxabiso.Ngokuqwalasela oku kungasentla, amagosa amaninzi e-European Central Bank avakalise iintetho zeHawkish ngokulandelelanayo.UQuindos, umongameli we-European Central Bank uthe, "Ukunyuka inzala kwakhona ngoJulayi yinyaniso".UMongameli uLagarde uphinde wathi, "Ukuba i-forecast yesiseko yebhanki ephakathi ihlala ingatshintshi, sinokunyusa izinga lenzala kwakhona ngoJulayi".Ukulindela ukunyuka okuthe kratya kwizinga lenzala ye-EUR nge-25BP ifundiwe kwimarike.Ingqalelo kufuneka ihlawulwe kwingxelo engaphezulu ye-European Central Bank emva kwale ntlanganiso malunga nokunyuka kwenzala.Ukuba isimo se-hawkish siyaqhubeka, umjikelo wokunyuka kwesantya se-EUR uya kwandiswa ngakumbi kwaye izinga lotshintshiselwano lwe-EUR nalo liya kuxhaswa ngakumbi.
/I-JPY/
IBhanki yaseJapan ayizange itshintshe umgaqo-nkqubo wemali okhoyo ngoJuni.Isimo sengqondo esinjalo sehobe sikhokelela kuxinzelelo oluphezulu lwe-JPY yokuhla kwexabiso.Ngenxa yoko, i-JPY yaqhubeka iyancipha kakhulu.Nangona ukunyuka kwamaxabiso eJapan kukwinqanaba eliphezulu embalini kutshanje, ukunyuka kwamaxabiso okunjalo kusengaphantsi kakhulu kunokwamazwe aseYurophu nawaseMelika.Njengoko ukunyuka kwamaxabiso kubonise umkhwa obuthathaka ngoJuni, akunakwenzeka ukuba iBhanki yaseJapan itshintshe ukusuka kumgaqo-nkqubo okhululekileyo kwaye iJapan isenoxinzelelo lokuncipha kwenzala.Nangona kunjalo, i-bureau yaseJapan enoxanduva inokungenelela ngezinga lonaniso ngexesha elifutshane.NgoJuni 30, izinga lokutshintshiselwa kweJPY ukuya kwi-USD idlule i-145 okokuqala ngqa ukususela ngoNovemba odlulileyo.NgoSeptemba wokugqibela, iJapan yenza imveliso yokuqala ukususela kwi-1998 ukuxhasa i-JPY, emva kokuba i-JPY yokutshintshiselana kwi-USD idlule i-145.
* Ezi nkcazelo zingentla zimele iimbono zombhali zobuqu kwaye zezereferensi kuphela.
Ixesha lokuposa: Jul-06-2023