RMB inopesana nebhasikiti yemari yakaramba ichiderera muna June, mukati mayo, CFETS RMB exchange rate index yakadonha kubva ku98,14 pakutanga kwemwedzi kusvika ku96,74, ichigadzira rekodhi itsva yakaderera mukati megore rino.Kuwedzera kweSino-US mubereko wemari, kudiwa kwemwaka kwekutenga mari yekunze uye chenjedzo yemusika nezve tarisiro yekuvandudza hupfumi hweChina ndizvo zvikonzero zvikuru zvinokonzeresa kuderera kweRMB.
Kuti tigadzirise kuchinja kwemitengo yeRMB nguva pfupi yadarika, tinokoka timu yezvemari yeSUMEC International Technology Co., Ltd. kuti ipe dudziro yehunyanzvi uye ongororo pamaitiro achangoburwa eRMB nemari yekunze.
RMB
Musi waChikumi 20, Central Bank yakadonhedza mibairo yeLPR ye1 gore uye pamusoro pemakore mashanu ne10BP, iyo inoenderana netarisiro yemusika uye inotungamira kuwedzera kuwedzera kweSino-US mhindu margin inversion.Kutenga kwemari yekunze kwemwaka nemwaka kwakakonzerwa nevemabhizimisi mhiri kwemakungwa kwakaganhurirawo kudzokororwa kweRMB nguva dzose.Mushure mezvose, chikonzero chikuru chekuderera kweRMB chiri mune zvakakosha zvehupfumi, izvo zvichiri zvisina kusimba: YOY kukura kwe data yehupfumi muna May ichiri kutadza kusvika kune tarisiro uye hupfumi hwepamba hwakanga huchiri muchikamu chekuchinja.
Vatongi vanotanga kuburitsa chiratidzo chekudzikamisa chiyero chekuchinjana pamwe nekuderera kweRMB.RMB yepakati mwero yave yakasimba kudarika tarisiro yemusika kakawanda kubva pakupera kwaChikumi uye countercyclical gadziriso yepakati mwero inotangwa zviri pamutemo.Kutsunga kwe "kudzivisa kushanduka kukuru kwemari yekuchinja" kwakasimbiswa zvakare mumusangano wenguva dzose weQ2 2023 weCentral Bank's Monetary Policy Committee yeCentral Bank wakaitwa mukupera kwemwedzi.
Pamusoro pezvo, kutariswa kwakabhadharwa zvakare kumutemo weCentral Committee wekuwedzera kwakadzikama kukura kwehupfumi pamusika wese.Zvikamu zvemitemo uye matanho ekuenderera mberi kwehupfumi hwakadzidzwa mumusangano weNPC Standing Committee musi waChikumi 16. Nezuva rimwe chetero, National Development and Reform Commission (NDRC) yakazivisawo kuedza kwayo mukugadzira uye kushambadza mitemo yekudzorera nekuwedzera. kushandiswa nokukurumidza sezvinobvira.Kushambadzwa uye kuitwa kwemutemo wakakodzera kuchawedzera RMB exchange rate zvinobudirira.
Kupfupisa, isu tinotenda RMB yekuchinjana mwero yasvika pazasi, ichisiya nzvimbo shoma yekuti iwedzere kudonha.Netarisiro, RMB yekuchinjana mwero ichakwira zvishoma nezvishoma nekusimuka kwakasimba kwehupfumi hwenyika pakati uye kwenguva refu.
Ichangobva kuitika yemari yekunze
/USD/
Muna Chikumi, data yehupfumi hweUS yakasangana netarisiro uye kutya, asi kudzvanywa mukukwira kwemitengo kwakawedzera kuderera.Zvose CPI nePPI dzaive neYOY kukura kwakaderera kudarika kukosha kwekare: Muna May, QOQ CPI yakangowedzera ne0.1%, 4% yakakwirira pane YOY nheyo asi yakaderera pane yaitarisirwa.PPI data yakadzokera kumashure zvakakwana.Muna May, PCE price index yakavandudzwa ne 3.8% pa YOY, nguva yekutanga apo yakadonha kusvika kune kukosha pasi pe4% kubva muna April 2021. dhayagiramu yeFederal Reserve muna Chikumi uye kutaura kwaPowell kwehawkish, kana data yeinflation ikadzokera kumashure muna Chikumi, pachave nenzvimbo shoma yekusimbisa USD uye kuwedzera kwemhindu yeUSD munharaunda ino kuchaswedera pedyo.
/EUR/
Yakasiyana neUS, inflation pressure mueurozone ichiri pachinzvimbo chepamusoro munhoroondo.Kunyange zvazvo CPI muEurozone yakaderera kusvika yakaderera kubva ku2022 munaJune, iyo CPI inokosha, iyo inonyanya kunetseka neEuropean Central Bank yakaratidza kukura kwe5.4% YOY, yakakwirira kudarika 5.3% yemwedzi wapera.Kuwedzera kwepakati inflation kunogona kuita kuti kuvandudzwa kwechiratidzo chekukwira kwemitengo kusave kushoma uye zvakare kunotungamira kune kuenderera mberi kunetseka kweEuropean Central Bank pamusoro pepakati inflation pressure.Tichifunga nezvezviri pamusoro, mapurisa akati wandei eEuropean Central Bank akataura hurukuro dzeHawkish dzakateerana.Quindos, mutevedzeri wemutungamiri weEuropean Central Bank akati, "Kukwira mubereko zvakare muna Chikunguru ichokwadi".Mutungamiri Lagarde vakatiwo, "Kana fungidziro yekutanga yebhangi repakati ikaramba isina kuchinjika, tinogona kuwedzera mubereko zvakare muna Chikunguru".Tarisiro yekuwedzera kukwira mubereko weEUR ne25BP yakadzidzwa pamusika.Inofanirwa kutariswa kune chimwe chirevo cheEuropean Central Bank mushure memusangano uyu wekukwira mubereko.Kana chimiro chehawkish chichienderera mberi, kutenderera kwechiyero cheEUR kuchawedzerwa uye mwero wekuchinjana weEUR uchatsigirwa zvakare.
/JPY/
Bhangi reJapan harina kushandura mutemo waro wemari waivepo muna Chikumi.Mafungiro akadaro enjiva anotungamira kudzvinyiriro yepamusoro yeJPY depreciation.Somugumisiro, JPY yakaramba ichiderera zvakanyanya.Kunyange zvazvo inflation yeJapan iri padanho repamusoro munguva pfupi yapfuura, inflation yakadaro ichiri yakaderera zvikuru kupfuura iyo yenyika dzeEurope neAmerica.Sezvo inflation yakaratidza kushaya simba muna Chikumi, hazvigoneke kuti Bhanga reJapan rishanduke kubva kune yakasununguka kuenda kune yakasimba mutemo uye Japan ichine dzvinyiriro yekuderera kwemhindu.Nekudaro, hofisi yeJapan inotarisira inogona kupindira nemutengo wekuchinjana mukati menguva pfupi.Musi wa30 Chikumi, JPY exchange rate kusvika kuUSD yakapfuura 145 kekutanga kubva muna Mbudzi apfuura.MunaGunyana rapfuura, Japan yakaita kugadzirwa kwayo kwekutanga kubvira 1998 kutsigira JPY, mushure mekunge JPY exchange rate kusvika USD yadarika 145.
* Tsananguro dziri pamusoro dzinomiririra maonero emunyori uye ndezvekutarisa chete.
Nguva yekutumira: Jul-06-2023