RMB a kan kwandon kudaden kuɗi ya ci gaba da yin rauni a cikin watan Yuni, wanda a cikinsa, ƙimar canjin CFETS RMB ta ragu daga 98.14 a farkon wata zuwa 96.74, wanda ya haifar da sabon matsayi mafi ƙanƙanci a cikin wannan shekara.Haɓaka ribar riba tsakanin Sin da Amurka, da buƙatar sayan musayar kuɗi na zamani, da yin taka tsan-tsan a kasuwa game da hasashen da ake yi na farfadowar tattalin arzikin kasar Sin, su ne manyan dalilan da ke haifar da ci gaba da raguwar kuɗin musayar RMB.
Don magance sauyin canjin kuɗi na RMB kwanan nan, muna gayyatar ƙungiyar kuɗi na SUMEC International Technology Co., Ltd. don ba da ƙwararrun fassarar da bincike kan yanayin RMB da kuɗin waje na kwanan nan.
RMB
A ranar 20 ga watan Yuni, Babban Bankin ya rage farashin LPR na shekara 1 da sama da shekaru 5 da 10BP, wanda ya dace da tsammanin kasuwa kuma yana haifar da ƙarin faɗaɗa jujjuyawar riba tsakanin Sin da Amurka.Sayen musanya na ƙasashen waje na lokaci-lokaci wanda kamfanonin ketare ke haifarwa ya kuma hana sake dawowa RMB akai-akai.Bayan haka, dalilin farko na raunin RMB yana cikin tushen tattalin arziki, waɗanda har yanzu suna da rauni: Ci gaban YOY na bayanan tattalin arziki a watan Mayu har yanzu ya kasa kai ga fata kuma har yanzu tattalin arzikin cikin gida yana cikin tsaka mai wuya na farfadowa.
Masu gudanarwa sun fara sakin siginar daidaita farashin musayar tare da ƙarin faɗuwar darajar RMB.Matsakaicin matsakaicin RMB ya fi ƙarfi fiye da tsammanin kasuwa na lokuta da yawa tun ƙarshen watan Yuni kuma ana ƙaddamar da daidaitawa na tsaka-tsaki bisa ƙa'ida.An kara jaddada kudurin "kaucewa babban canjin canjin kudi" a cikin Q2 2023 na yau da kullun na kwamitin manufofin kudi na babban bankin babban bankin kasa kamar yadda aka gudanar a karshen wata.
Bugu da kari, an kuma mai da hankali kan manufofin kwamitin tsakiya na ci gaban ci gaban tattalin arziki a dukkan kasuwanni.A gun taron zaunannen kwamitin NPC da aka yi a ranar 16 ga watan Yuni, an yi nazari kan wasu tsare-tsare na manufofi da matakan ci gaba da bunkasar tattalin arziki. A wannan rana, hukumar raya kasa da yin kwaskwarima ta kasar (NDRC) ta bayyana kokarinta na tsarawa da fitar da manufofin maido da fadada. cinyewa da wuri-wuri.Ƙaddamarwa da aiwatar da manufofin da suka dace za su kara yawan kuɗin RMB yadda ya kamata.
A takaice, mun yi imanin cewa farashin musayar RMB ya kai kasa, yana barin iyakataccen sarari don kara faduwa.A cikin kyakkyawan fata, darajar musayar RMB za ta sake komawa sannu a hankali tare da ci gaba da haɓakar tattalin arzikin ƙasa a tsakiya da kuma na dogon lokaci.
Kwanan nan yanayin kuɗin waje
/USD/
A watan Yuni, bayanan tattalin arzikin Amurka sun haɗu da bege da tsoro, amma matsin lamba a cikin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya ɗan raunana ci gaba.Dukansu CPI da PPI suna da haɓakar YOY ƙasa da ƙimar da ta gabata: A watan Mayu, QOQ CPI kawai ya ƙaru da 0.1%, 4% mafi girma akan tsarin YOY amma ƙasa da yadda ake tsammani.Bayanan PPI sun faɗi baya gabaɗaya.A watan Mayu, ƙimar farashin PCE ta haɓaka da 3.8% akan tsarin YOY, farkon lokacin da ta faɗi zuwa ƙimar ƙasa da 4% tun Afrilu 2021. Ko da yake yawan ribar dalar Amurka na iya haɓaka sau biyu a wannan shekara, bisa ga lattice. Jadawalin Asusun Tarayya a watan Yuni da kuma jawabin da Powell ya yi, idan bayanan hauhawar farashin kaya ya faɗo baya a watan Yuni, za a sami iyakataccen sarari don ƙarfafa dalar Amurka kuma yawan kuɗin ruwa na dalar Amurka a wannan zagaye zai kusanto.
/EUR/
Bamban da Amurka, matsin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a cikin yankin Euro har yanzu yana kan matsayi mai girma a tarihi.Kodayake CPI a cikin yankin Yuro ya ragu zuwa ƙananan matsayi tun daga 2022 a watan Yuni, babban CPI, wanda babban bankin Turai ya damu sosai ya nuna ci gaban 5.4% YOY, sama da 5.3% na watan da ya gabata.Haɓaka babban hauhawar farashin kayayyaki na iya yin ingantuwar ma'aunin hauhawar farashin kayayyaki gabaɗaya ba shi da mahimmanci kuma yana haifar da ƙarin damuwa na Babban Bankin Turai akan ainihin matsin lamba.Bisa la'akari da abubuwan da ke sama, da yawa jami'an Babban Bankin Turai sun bayyana jawabai na Hawkis a jere.Quindos, mataimakin shugaban babban bankin Turai ya ce, "Yin hawan riba kuma a watan Yuli gaskiya ne".Shugaba Lagarde ta kuma ce, "Idan harsashen hasashen babban bankin ya ci gaba da canzawa, za mu iya sake yin karin kudin ruwa a watan Yuli".An koyan sa ran ƙarin hawan ribar EUR da 25BP akan kasuwa.Ya kamata a mai da hankali ga ƙarin bayani na Babban Bankin Turai bayan wannan taro kan hawan ruwa.Idan an ci gaba da tsayawa tsayin daka, za a ƙara tsawaita zagayowar zagayowar ƙimar Yuro kuma za a ƙara tallafawa kuɗin musaya na EUR.
/JPY/
Bankin Japan bai canza manufofinsa na kuɗi a watan Yuni ba.Irin wannan hali na kurciya yana haifar da matsa lamba mafi girma na rage darajar JPY.Sakamakon haka, JPY ya ci gaba da raunana sosai.Duk da cewa hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a Japan yana kan wani mahimmiyar tarihi a baya-bayan nan, har yanzu irin wannan hauhawar farashin ya yi kasa da na kasashen Turai da Amurka.Kamar yadda hauhawar farashin kayayyaki ya nuna raguwar yanayin a watan Yuni, yana da wuya cewa Bankin Japan zai canza daga sako-sako zuwa tsauraran manufofi kuma har yanzu Japan tana da matsin lamba na raguwar riba.Koyaya, ofishin da ke da alhakin Japan na iya shiga tsakani tare da kuɗin musanya cikin ɗan gajeren lokaci.A ranar 30 ga Yuni, JPY farashin musaya zuwa dalar Amurka ya zarce 145 a karon farko tun watan Nuwamban bara.A cikin watan Satumban da ya gabata, kasar Japan ta kirkiro sabuwar fasaharta ta farko tun shekara ta 1998 don tallafawa JPY, bayan da farashin canjin JPY zuwa dalar Amurka ya zarce 145.
* Bayanan da ke sama suna wakiltar ra'ayoyin marubucin kuma don tunani kawai.
Lokacin aikawa: Yuli-06-2023